Tool 22 of 32 · about an hour

Runway Trace

How much time the company actually has, from trailing actuals or an honest band, on the record from day 0.

At intake, day 0, before any desk analysis, so the number or band exists as an input from the first day, never as a decision-day exercise.

What it is for

To put how much time the company actually has on the record, as a number with a range or as an honest band, because every later verdict depends on that number.

The failure it catches

In most stuck companies the number is unknown, optimistically remembered, or withheld. A savability verdict built on a vibe about runway is a guess wearing a suit.

Why it works

Trailing actuals, or a self-reported band cross-checked against what can be observed anyway, replace a remembered number with something a later verdict can rest on. The decision deadline is cash deadline minus honest execution time, which is the only deadline that matters.

How to run it

  1. Two tiers, so the tool still runs when the books stay closed.
  2. The exact tier pulls cash on hand, monthly burn as a trailing three-month average rather than the budget figure, and committed inflows and outflows with their dates, then computes months of runway and its trend. The decision deadline is the cash deadline minus the honest execution time of the fix under discussion.
  3. The band tier, for owners who will not open the books, takes a self-reported runway band, under three months, three to six, six to twelve, or twelve plus, along with the burn trend, growing, flat, or shrinking, in writing and dated.
  4. Cross-check the band against what can be observed anyway: headcount trajectory, payment timing, deferred renewals, hiring freezes. State that rule before the band is given. A band contradicted by two or more of those is treated as one band worse.
  5. Land the trace at intake, before desk analysis.

How to read the result

The exact tier gives a number with a stated range, because the window estimate compounds several uncertain inputs. State it as a range, never a point. The band tier gives a band with a confidence note. Either way it answers one question: is the decision deadline inside the window or not. A band one step from the wall upgrades urgency regardless of what anyone says about it. Never present a band with the exact tier's precision.

How to run it well
  • Use trailing actuals only. Budget burn flatters the number.
  • Tell the band rule before asking for the band, so the self-report stays honest.
Where it breaks
  • Budget burn flatters the number. Use trailing actuals only.
  • A band is a self-report and can be managed, which is exactly what the observable cross-checks are for.
  • A company that resists even the band has told you something worth writing down.
  • Never present a band with the exact tier's precision.
What would prove it wrong

Band readings that, when the books later open, prove wrong by two or more bands despite passing the proxy check would mean the proxies are too weak.

What we watch

Whether bands that passed the observable cross-check later match the books, or whether they were still off by more than one band.

Ask yourself
  • If you opened the books today, what is cash on hand, and what is burn as a trailing three-month average rather than the budget figure?
  • If the books stay closed, which honest band are you in: under three months, three to six, six to twelve, or twelve plus, and is burn growing, flat, or shrinking?
  • Do headcount, payment timing, deferred renewals, or hiring freezes contradict that band?
  • Is the decision deadline, cash deadline minus honest execution time, inside that window?

Feeds: Decision Decay Curve, Savability Test, Baseline Vitals

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